How sure is it that the PLA will conquer Taiwan?Listen to what the Americans have to say
There are mainly two modes of reunification of Taiwan: peaceful reunification and armed reunification. In these two modes, Wutong is undoubtedly like cutting the tangle with a sharp knife, with a short time and quick effect.In fact, if the Mainland were to rule Taiwan, the Taiwan army, known as the “strawberry soldiers”, would not be a rival of the PLA. The key is how to deal with the POSSIBLE military intervention of the US army.If the US military does not “assist in defending Taiwan”, the PLA will naturally recover Taiwan by force in a week, a day or even 12 hours.As some netizens said, one morning after the military rule of Taiwan, the afternoon saw Taiwan people queuing up for a new ID card.So what is the PLA’s chance of reuniting Taiwan by force if the US intervenes militarily?Experts and scholars on both sides of the Straits have talked about this issue, and opinions vary with each other.Sometimes it matters what your opponent thinks, and we might as well listen to the Americans on the question of military domination of Taiwan.The Rand Corporation, a well-known US think tank, said that if tensions across the Taiwan Straits heated up and the US made good on its promise to send troops to “help defend Taiwan”, the following scenarios might occur.If the US forces were to confront the PEOPLE’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Strait or near the Chinese coast, even with all available forces, there would be only two outcomes: one is to retreat in defeat and watch the PLA recover Taiwan;The other was to fall into a protracted war with the PEOPLE’s Liberation Army and pay a heavy price.If a war were to take place in the seas surrounding China, such as the South China Sea or The East China Sea, the PLA would be on the defensive and the US would need to commit far more troops than the other side.Although the U.S. army has an advantage in equipment, it remains to be seen whether the expeditionary U.S. forces will be able to offset the advantage of the people’s Liberation Army.Although the United States has many Allies in the Asia-pacific region, most of them will sit on the sidelines for fear of offending China and helping the United States prevent the PEOPLE’s Liberation Army from taking over Taiwan.So all told, the AMERICANS have less than a 50-50 chance.General David Davidson said the increasing presence of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Strait has made the situation very unstable, and the US military will not be able to help the Taiwan army resist an attack by the PLA if a conflict breaks out in six years.In Davidson’s view, as time goes by, the strength gap between the PLA and the US army will become smaller and smaller, especially in the Taiwan Strait, where the PLA is in the right place at the right time and is likely to win, and the US military can only feel helpless towards the mainland’s military domination of Taiwan.Aquilino said that given the high level of tension across the Taiwan Strait, China has the ability to keep the U.S. forces out of the Taiwan Strait. If the U.S. forces and the PEOPLE’s Liberation Army fight each other in the Taiwan Strait, China will have the “home advantage”.America may be short of troops for a war over Taiwan (the rest of the us military has to flex its muscles elsewhere, after all), so it needs to build “rapid-reaction forces” with allied forces that might be able to neutralise the PLA’s deterrence.According to the new Taiwan Strait plan, the US military plans to cooperate with Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, and Japan plans to use its Nansei Islands as us military bases and deploy missile units to deter The Chinese army.This plan coincides with Aquilino’s idea, but whether it can be carried out smoothly and achieve the goal of “assisting Taiwan” is not clear.Based on the three arguments made by the US side, at least three conclusions can be drawn. First, the US army will not win a war with the PLA near China’s waters.Second, the U.S. military needs to unite allied forces to form a military advantage over China, possibly to a draw with China.Third, if the US army gets into a protracted war with the PLA in the Taiwan War, it will surely lose, and it will be a fiasco.In addition to the US think tank has played up the “China threat theory” to cheat funds suspect, the PLA said a bit exaggerated, the US general’s statement is quite objective, has certain reference value.Objectively speaking, if a war breaks out across the Taiwan Strait and the US military intervenes in “assisting Taiwan”, China has no certainty of victory, let alone the US.After all, if a conflict breaks out between the two military powers, the battlefield will change rapidly. Where, how and for how long is anyone’s guess.As a result, the US military has repeatedly stressed the need to avoid war with China.Of course, for China, Taiwan must be recovered, the motherland must be unified, no matter wutong or Harmony, no matter how much cost, are must be accomplished great!