Every fed rate hike causes most asset prices to fall, but some assets to rise

2022-05-12 0 By

Most fed all previous increases in interest rates will lead to falling asset prices, but some of the assets will rise in the context of the federal reserve to raise interest rates expected, most global asset prices will appear different degrees of decline, we realized the a-share market is particularly sensitive, among the world’s major economies in the led, it is actually A kind of both normal and abnormal conditions,Normal because, under normal circumstances the fed to raise interest rates means that global capital will return the United States, the first leading to a passive asset prices down in other countries, said the market performance of abnormal because we too sensitive, under we have expectations of monetary easing, the market is still continuous decline, indicating that the market for economic confidence, but at the time of the federal reserve to raise interest rates,Not all asset prices will fall, and a few will even rise throughout the rate hike. Here’s which assets will rise and where the logic lies.The fed’s monetary policy in the first place, the first big probability rising asset types are safe-haven asset classes, such assets in general is characterized by good performance, low growth, high proportion of share out bonus, the monopoly of the industry concentration degree is high, strong ability to resist risks, including banking, insurance, part of food consumption, periodic black goods,But this does not include gold (which is a relatively special asset class, to be covered separately).Banks are such assets, mainly derived from the overall monetary policy, from the A shares and U.S. stocks nearly 30 years of experience, when the overall monetary policy easing stage, the growth properties for medicine, science and technology, new energy sources will fare well, when overall tightening of monetary policy is on stage, that means that the bank of defensive attributes, insurance,Just need food consumption trend will be relatively high, said more popular point is, when the money is much, the money burning industry rose higher, when the money is little, the money making industry rose better.Understanding this logic, we can understand why the interest rate cut to hedge the INTEREST rate hike in the United States will still cause asset prices to fall. Because the DOLLAR is stronger than the RMB, the overall currency in the market is still reduced, so the overall monetary policy in the market is still in the tightening stage.Secondly, let’s talk about what factors affect the trend of gold, a safe haven asset. Specifically, the trend of gold will be influenced by the strength of the DOLLAR index, international political stability, oil price, inflation level and interest rate.Generally speaking, when the DOLLAR index is strong, the price of gold will be passive weak, because both the dollar and gold are international hedge assets. When one asset has relatively new attraction, the attraction of the other asset will be relatively weakened, and in most cases, there is a negative correlation.The price of oil and gold are mostly in a positive correlation, because oil is the mother of all industries. When the price of oil rises, it means that the inflation level will rise and the currency will depreciate, and gold’s hedging function will be highlighted.Oil when the international political situation or a country to local political turbulence, the price of gold will be stronger, because of political turmoil necessarily lead to economic stagnation or decline, then hands currency devaluation is easy to happen, people will flock to gold the safe havens, and better economic conditions, people have money also can buy gold,Gold mainly consumer attributes, at the moment, so, when the economy is in a very good and very bad two extremes, typically gold going up, and the economy in a tepid, gold prices will also appear more insipid, so, to judge the shape of the gold is more difficult, but in the 10 years of long term, in point of gold is always right.Stock market in the end, not every time the fed to raise interest rates can lead to asset prices continued to fall, according to historical experience, the federal reserve to raise interest rates of junior high school period really will cause a drop in global assets, and in the later period of the impact of not so big, in combination with the number of the federal reserve to raise rates this year, raised interest rates three times before it should be in 3 to 7 months, also say,In this period of time, the risk of investment assets is relatively large, but as the second half of the middle and the latter half of the year and next year, the impact is not so big, so I think it is not a good time to sell before July, even if it is to sell banks, insurance and other traditional blue chips with high dividends, mainly.During this period we should pay attention to whether the central bank’s monetary easing policy can exceed expectations.